Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 February 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 19 Feb 2023
- Respondents
- 1,008
- Method
- Online
- CSU43.0%±0
- Grüne17.5%±0
- Freie Wähler12.0%-1.0
- AfD10.0%+2.0
- SPD6.0%-2.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others6.5%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Jan 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 43.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%. 1,008 people were surveyed from 14 to 19 Feb 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Jan 2023, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.4 points lower and CSU 3.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Feb 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -3.4average 9.4
- CSU +3.0average 40.0
- Freie Wähler +1.8average 10.2
- Linke -1.0average 2.0
- AfD -0.4average 10.4
- Grüne -0.3average 17.8
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU88
- Grüne36
- Freie Wähler24
- AfD20
- SPD12
- CSU + Grüne124 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler112 of 180
- CSU + AfD108 of 180
- CSU + SPD100 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.