Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 January 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 17 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 1,040
- Method
- Online
- CSU43.0%±0
- Grüne17.5%±0
- Freie Wähler13.0%+1.5
- SPD8.0%+1.0
- AfD8.0%-4.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others5.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 Dec 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 43.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%. 1,040 people were surveyed from 13 to 17 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 Dec 2022, AfD loses 4.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.5 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Freie Wähler 3.0 points higher and CSU 2.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +3.0average 10.0
- CSU +2.6average 40.4
- AfD -2.0average 10.0
- SPD -1.4average 9.4
- Linke -1.3average 2.3
- Grüne -0.5average 18.0
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU87
- Grüne35
- Freie Wähler26
- SPD16
- AfD16
- CSU + Grüne122 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler113 of 180
- CSU + SPD103 of 180
- CSU + AfD103 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.