Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 December 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 5 Dec 2022
- Respondents
- 1,944
- Method
- Online
- CSU43.0%+1.0
- Grüne17.5%-1.5
- AfD12.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler11.5%±0
- SPD7.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-1.5
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Nov 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 43.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%. 1,944 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 Dec 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Nov 2022, Grüne loses 1.5 points, FDP loses 1.5 points, CSU gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 3.6 points higher and SPD 2.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Dec 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.6average 39.4
- SPD -2.8average 9.8
- AfD +1.4average 10.6
- Freie Wähler +1.3average 10.2
- Linke -1.0average 2.0
- Grüne -0.7average 18.2
- FDP +0.2average 3.8
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU85
- Grüne34
- AfD24
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD14
- CSU + Grüne119 of 180
- CSU + AfD109 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler108 of 180
- CSU + SPD99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.