Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 November 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Oct 2022 to 3 Nov 2022
- Respondents
- 1,040
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%±0
- Grüne19.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler11.5%+3.5
- AfD11.0%+3.0
- SPD6.0%±0
- FDP5.5%-2.5
- Linke1.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Sep 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,040 people were surveyed from 29 Oct 2022 to 3 Nov 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Sep 2022, Freie Wähler gains 3.5 points, AfD gains 3.0 points, FDP loses 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.6 points lower and CSU 3.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Nov 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -3.6average 9.6
- CSU +3.2average 38.8
- Freie Wähler +1.3average 10.2
- FDP +1.3average 4.2
- Linke -1.0average 2.0
- AfD +0.8average 10.2
- Grüne -0.2average 19.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU80
- Grüne36
- Freie Wähler22
- AfD21
- SPD11
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne116 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + AfD101 of 180
- CSU + SPD91 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.