Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 September 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 13 Sep 2022
- Respondents
- 1,371
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%+1.0
- Grüne21.0%-1.0
- FDP8.0%+3.0
- AfD8.0%+2.0
- Freie Wähler8.0%-1.5
- SPD6.0%-5.0
- Linke2.0%+1.0
- Others5.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Aug 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,371 people were surveyed from 6 to 13 Sep 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Aug 2022, SPD loses 5.0 points, FDP gains 3.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.0 points lower and CSU 2.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Sep 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -3.0average 9.0
- CSU +2.7average 39.3
- FDP +2.7average 5.3
- Freie Wähler -1.7average 9.7
- Grüne +0.3average 20.7
- AfD +0.3average 7.7
- Linke +0.3average 1.7
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- Grüne41
- FDP16
- AfD15
- Freie Wähler15
- SPD12
- CSU + Grüne122 of 180
- CSU + FDP97 of 180
- CSU + AfD96 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler96 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.