Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 August 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 3 Aug 2022
- Respondents
- 1,100
- Method
- Online
- CSU41.0%+1.5
- Grüne22.0%+3.5
- SPD11.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler9.5%-0.5
- AfD6.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others4.5%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 Jun 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Aug 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 Jun 2022, Grüne gains 3.5 points, CSU gains 1.5 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.0 points higher and CSU 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Aug 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +2.0average 9.0
- CSU +1.7average 39.3
- AfD -1.7average 7.7
- Grüne +1.3average 20.7
- Linke -0.7average 1.7
- FDP -0.3average 5.3
- Freie Wähler -0.2average 9.7
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- Grüne42
- SPD21
- Freie Wähler18
- AfD11
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne120 of 180
- CSU + SPD99 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler96 of 180
- CSU + AfD + FDP99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.