Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 June 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 22 to 29 Jun 2022
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CSU39.5%-0.5
- Grüne18.5%+3.5
- SPD12.0%-4.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%+3.0
- AfD7.0%±0
- FDP6.0%-1.0
- Linke1.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 May 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 39.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 22 to 29 Jun 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 May 2022, SPD loses 4.0 points, Grüne gains 3.5 points, Freie Wähler gains 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.0 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jun 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.0average 9.0
- Grüne -1.5average 20.0
- CSU -0.5average 40.0
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 9.5
- AfD -0.5average 7.5
- FDP +0.5average 5.5
- Linke -0.5average 1.5
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU76
- Grüne36
- SPD23
- Freie Wähler19
- AfD14
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + SPD99 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler95 of 180
- CSU + AfD + FDP102 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.