Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 June 2022 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
22 to 29 Jun 2022
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CSU39.5%-0.5
  • Grüne18.5%+3.5
  • SPD12.0%-4.0
  • Freie Wähler10.0%+3.0
  • AfD7.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • Linke1.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 May 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 39.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 22 to 29 Jun 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 May 2022, SPD loses 4.0 points, Grüne gains 3.5 points, Freie Wähler gains 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.0 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jun 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +3.0average 9.0
  • Grüne -1.5average 20.0
  • CSU -0.5average 40.0
  • Freie Wähler +0.5average 9.5
  • AfD -0.5average 7.5
  • FDP +0.5average 5.5
  • Linke -0.5average 1.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 76 seatsGrüne: 36 seatsSPD: 23 seatsFreie Wähler: 19 seatsAfD: 14 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU76
  • Grüne36
  • SPD23
  • Freie Wähler19
  • AfD14
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne112 of 180
  • CSU + SPD99 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler95 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + FDP102 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.