Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 May 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Apr 2022 to 3 May 2022
- Respondents
- 1,053
- Method
- Online
- CSU40.0%+3.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- FDP7.0%±0
- AfD7.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler7.0%-1.0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others6.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 Feb 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,053 people were surveyed from 27 Apr 2022 to 3 May 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 Feb 2022, CSU gains 3.5 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 3.0 points higher and SPD 2.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 May 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.0average 37.0
- SPD +2.5average 13.5
- AfD -2.5average 9.5
- Grüne -1.0average 16.0
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 8.0
- Linke -1.0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 7.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- SPD31
- Grüne29
- FDP14
- AfD14
- Freie Wähler14
- CSU + SPD109 of 180
- CSU + Grüne107 of 180
- CSU + FDP92 of 180
- CSU + AfD92 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler92 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.