Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 February 2022 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
18 to 23 Feb 2022
Respondents
1,700
Method
Online
  • CSU36.5%+3.0
  • SPD16.0%-0.5
  • Grüne15.0%-1.5
  • AfD9.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler8.0%-3.0
  • FDP7.0%-1.0
  • Linke2.0%±0
  • Others6.5%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 Dec 2021.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 36.5%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,700 people were surveyed from 18 to 23 Feb 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 Dec 2021, CSU gains 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 2.2 points higher and FDP 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Feb 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU +2.2average 34.3
  • FDP -2.0average 9.0
  • Grüne -0.3average 15.3
  • AfD -0.3average 9.3
  • SPD ±0average 16.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 8.0
  • Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 72 seatsSPD: 31 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 18 seatsFreie Wähler: 16 seatsFDP: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU72
  • SPD31
  • Grüne29
  • AfD18
  • Freie Wähler16
  • FDP14
  • CSU + SPD103 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne101 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + Freie Wähler106 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + FDP104 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP102 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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