Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 December 2021 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
8 to 14 Dec 2021
Respondents
1,430
Method
Online
  • CSU33.5%
  • SPD16.5%
  • Grüne16.5%
  • Freie Wähler11.0%
  • FDP8.0%
  • AfD8.0%
  • Linke2.0%
  • Others4.5%

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 33.5%, followed by SPD on 16.5%. 1,430 people were surveyed from 8 to 14 Dec 2021, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and CSU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Dec 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +2.5average 8.5
  • CSU -2.0average 35.5
  • SPD +2.0average 14.5
  • Grüne -1.0average 17.5
  • FDP -1.0average 9.0
  • Linke -0.5average 2.5
  • AfD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 65 seatsSPD: 32 seatsGrüne: 32 seatsFreie Wähler: 21 seatsFDP: 15 seatsAfD: 15 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU65
  • SPD32
  • Grüne32
  • Freie Wähler21
  • FDP15
  • AfD15
  • CSU + SPD97 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne97 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP101 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD101 of 180
  • CSU + FDP + AfD95 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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