Single poll
Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 December 2021 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 14 Dec 2021
- Respondents
- 1,430
- Method
- Online
- CSU33.5%
- SPD16.5%
- Grüne16.5%
- Freie Wähler11.0%
- FDP8.0%
- AfD8.0%
- Linke2.0%
- Others4.5%
33.5%
CSU
16.5%
SPD
16.5%
Grüne
11.0%
Freie Wähler
8.0%
FDP
8.0%
AfD
2.0%
Linke
4.5%
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 33.5%, followed by SPD on 16.5%. 1,430 people were surveyed from 8 to 14 Dec 2021, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and CSU 2.0 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Dec 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.5average 8.5
- CSU -2.0average 35.5
- SPD +2.0average 14.5
- Grüne -1.0average 17.5
- FDP -1.0average 9.0
- Linke -0.5average 2.5
- AfD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU65
- SPD32
- Grüne32
- Freie Wähler21
- FDP15
- AfD15
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
- CSU + Grüne97 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP101 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD101 of 180
- CSU + FDP + AfD95 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.