Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 7 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,254
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU36.0%+2.0
- Grüne16.0%-3.0
- Freie Wähler16.0%+6.0
- AfD12.0%+2.0
- SPD9.0%-3.0
- FDP4.0%-1.5
- Others7.0%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Oct 2018.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 16.0%. 1,254 people were surveyed from 4 to 7 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Oct 2018, Freie Wähler gains 6.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Freie Wähler 2.6 points higher and CSU 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.6average 13.4
- CSU -2.5average 38.5
- AfD -2.2average 14.2
- Grüne +1.9average 14.1
- SPD -0.5average 9.5
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU73
- Grüne33
- Freie Wähler32
- AfD24
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler105 of 180
- CSU + AfD97 of 180
- CSU + SPD91 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.