Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 25 to 28 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,222
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU36.0%±0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- Freie Wähler15.0%-1.0
- AfD14.0%+2.0
- SPD9.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Others6.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Sep 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 16.0%. 1,222 people were surveyed from 25 to 28 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Sep 2023, AfD gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 29 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.7average 14.3
- CSU -1.2average 37.2
- Freie Wähler -0.6average 15.6
- AfD +0.4average 13.6
- FDP +0.3average 3.7
- SPD +0.1average 8.9
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU72
- Grüne32
- Freie Wähler30
- AfD28
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + AfD100 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.