Single poll
INSA poll of 4 October 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CSU36.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler15.0%±0
- AfD14.0%±0
- SPD9.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
36.0%
-1.0
CSU
15.0%
+1.0
Grüne
15.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
14.0%
±0
AfD
9.0%
±0
SPD
4.0%
±0
FDP
2.0%
±0
Linke
5.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 25 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Sep 2023, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -0.8average 36.8
- Linke +0.6average 1.4
- Freie Wähler -0.3average 15.3
- Grüne +0.2average 14.8
- AfD +0.2average 13.8
- SPD +0.2average 8.8
- FDP +0.2average 3.8
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU73
- Grüne31
- Freie Wähler30
- AfD28
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler103 of 180
- CSU + AfD101 of 180
- CSU + SPD91 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.