Single poll
INSA poll of 20 October 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 14 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 43.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Oct 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Oct 2023, CSU gains 7.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 5.5 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +5.5average 12.5
- CSU +0.5average 42.5
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 11.5
- Grüne -0.5average 10.5
- SPD +0.5average 7.5
- BSW ±0average 5.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU82
- AfD34
- Freie Wähler21
- Grüne19
- SPD15
- BSW9
- CSU + AfD116 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler103 of 180
- CSU + Grüne101 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
- CSU + BSW91 of 180
More
More polls
← INSA, 4 Oct 2023Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.