Single poll

INSA poll of 5 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
1 to 5 Sep 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CSU37.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler15.0%+4.0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • SPD9.0%-2.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke2.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jul 2023.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Freie Wähler on 15.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 5 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jul 2023, Freie Wähler gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Freie Wähler 2.7 points higher and CSU 2.4 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +2.7average 12.3
  • CSU -2.4average 39.4
  • SPD -0.8average 9.8
  • AfD +0.6average 13.4
  • Grüne -0.3average 14.3
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
  • Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 75 seatsFreie Wähler: 31 seatsGrüne: 28 seatsAfD: 28 seatsSPD: 18 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU75
  • Freie Wähler31
  • Grüne28
  • AfD28
  • SPD18
  • CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne103 of 180
  • CSU + AfD103 of 180
  • CSU + SPD93 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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