Single poll
INSA poll of 27 July 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 24 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 810
- Method
- Online
- CSU38.0%-2.0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- AfD14.0%+2.0
- SPD11.0%±0
- Freie Wähler11.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
38.0%
-2.0
CSU
15.0%
±0
Grüne
14.0%
+2.0
AfD
11.0%
±0
SPD
11.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
5.0%
±0
FDP
2.0%
±0
Linke
4.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 May 2023.
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 810 people were surveyed from 17 to 24 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 May 2023, CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.6average 12.4
- CSU -1.4average 39.4
- FDP +1.2average 3.8
- SPD +0.8average 10.2
- Grüne -0.5average 15.5
- Freie Wähler -0.3average 11.3
- Linke +0.1average 1.9
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU72
- Grüne29
- AfD27
- SPD21
- Freie Wähler21
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne101 of 180
- CSU + AfD99 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.