Bavaria state election 2018: the result
In the Bavarian state election on 14 October 2018, CSU became the largest party with 37.2%, 19.7 points ahead of Grüne (17.5%).
- Failed to clear the threshold
- Linke (3.2%), Bayernpartei (1.7%), ÖDP (1.6%), Piraten (0.4%)
- Polls one week before
- off by 1.4 points per party on average, CSU underestimated by 2.2
- Turnout
- 72.4%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2018 state election
Turnout in the Bavarian state election on 14 October 2018 was 72.4%. The Bavarian Landtag has 205 seats; a majority needs 103.
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2018 (%) | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Christlich-Soziale Union | 37.2% | 85 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 17.5% | 38 |
| Freie Wähler | 11.6% | 27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 10.2% | 22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 9.7% | 22 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 5.1% | 11 |
| Die Linke | 3.2% | – |
| Bayernpartei | 1.7% | – |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei | 1.6% | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.4% | – |
| Others | 1.8% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 205 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Bavarian Landtag after the 2018 result
205 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- CSU85
- Grüne38
- Freie Wähler27
- SPD22
- AfD22
- FDP11
Which alliances had a majority after the 2018 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- CSU + Grüne123 of 205
- CSU + Freie Wähler112 of 205
- CSU + SPD107 of 205
- CSU + AfD107 of 205
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2018 state election
9 polls between 21 Sep 2018 and 11 Oct 2018, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | Grüne | Freie Wähler | AfD | SPD | FDP | Linke | Bayernpartei | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Oct 2018 | 34 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 5.5 | 4 | – | ||
| Civey | 11 Oct 2018 | 32.9 | 18.5 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.9 | 3.9 | – | ||
| INSA | 9 Oct 2018 | 33 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 5.5 | 4.5 | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2018 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 5.5 | 4.5 | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 4 Oct 2018 | 33 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 4.5 | – | ||
| GMS | 27 Sep 2018 | 35 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 4 | – | ||
| INSA | 26 Sep 2018 | 34 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 4 | – | ||
| Civey | 24 Sep 2018 | 36 | 17.9 | 8.6 | 13.2 | 12 | 5 | 3.3 | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21 Sep 2018 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 4 | – | ||
| Min – Max | 32.9–36 | 16–19 | 8.6–11 | 10–14 | 10–13 | 5–6 | 3.3–4.5 | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 11 Oct 2018
Who came closest before the 2018 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CSU | Grüne | Freie Wähler | AfD | SPD | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 14 Oct 2018 | 37.2% | 17.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | ||
| Infratest dimap | 4 Oct 2018 (10 days before) | -4.2 | +0.5 | -0.6 | -0.2 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Oct 2018 (3 days before) | -3.2 | +1.5 | -1.6 | -0.2 | +2.3 | +0.4 | +0.8 | 1.4 |
| INSA | 9 Oct 2018 (5 days before) | -4.2 | +0.5 | -0.6 | +3.8 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +1.3 | 1.6 |
| GMS | 27 Sep 2018 (17 days before) | -2.2 | -1.5 | -1.6 | +1.8 | +3.3 | -0.1 | +0.8 | 1.6 |
| Civey | 11 Oct 2018 (3 days before) | -4.3 | +1.0 | -1.8 | +2.6 | +1.3 | +0.8 | +0.7 | 1.8 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.