Civey poll of 11 October 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 10 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 5,063
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU32.9%-3.1
- Grüne18.5%+0.6
- AfD12.8%-0.4
- SPD11.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler9.8%+1.2
- FDP5.9%+0.9
- Linke3.9%+0.6
- Others5.2%+1.2
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 24 Sep 2018.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 32.9%, followed by Grüne on 18.5%. 5,063 people were surveyed from 6 to 10 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 24 Sep 2018, CSU loses 3.1 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.2 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has CSU 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -1.5average 34.4
- AfD +1.0average 11.8
- Grüne +0.9average 17.6
- SPD -0.6average 11.6
- FDP +0.5average 5.4
- Linke -0.3average 4.2
- Freie Wähler -0.2average 10.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU65
- Grüne37
- AfD25
- SPD22
- Freie Wähler19
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne102 of 180
- CSU + AfD + SPD112 of 180
- CSU + AfD + Freie Wähler109 of 180
- CSU + SPD + Freie Wähler106 of 180
- CSU + AfD + FDP102 of 180
- CSU + SPD + FDP99 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP96 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.