Single poll
Civey poll of 24 September 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 19 to 23 Sep 2018
- Respondents
- 5,061
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU36.0%+0.2
- Grüne17.9%+1.4
- AfD13.2%-0.5
- SPD12.0%-0.1
- Freie Wähler8.6%+0.5
- FDP5.0%-0.8
- Linke3.3%+0.6
- Others4.0%-1.3
36.0%
+0.2
CSU
17.9%
+1.4
Grüne
13.2%
-0.5
AfD
12.0%
-0.1
SPD
8.6%
+0.5
Freie Wähler
5.0%
-0.8
FDP
3.3%
+0.6
Linke
4.0%
-1.3
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 10 Sep 2018.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.9%. 5,061 people were surveyed from 19 to 23 Sep 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 10 Sep 2018, Grüne gains 1.4 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Sep 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.3average 16.6
- AfD +0.8average 12.4
- Linke -0.7average 4.0
- Freie Wähler -0.4average 9.0
- FDP -0.4average 5.4
- CSU +0.2average 35.8
- SPD -0.2average 12.2
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU70
- Grüne35
- AfD25
- SPD23
- Freie Wähler17
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + AfD95 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP97 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.