GMS poll of 27 September 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 26 Sep 2018
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU35.0%-1.0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- SPD13.0%+1.0
- AfD12.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%+3.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 11 Sep 2018.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 35.0%, followed by Grüne on 16.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 20 to 26 Sep 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 11 Sep 2018, Freie Wähler gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Sep 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.4average 17.4
- SPD +1.2average 11.8
- CSU -0.4average 35.4
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 9.7
- AfD -0.2average 12.2
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Linke -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU69
- Grüne31
- SPD26
- AfD24
- Freie Wähler20
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne100 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
- CSU + AfD93 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.