Single poll
GMS poll of 3 January 2019 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2018 to 2 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2018 to 2 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 27 Sep 2018, SPD loses 4.0 points, CSU gains 3.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 3.8 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.8average 34.2
- SPD -2.2average 11.2
- AfD -2.0average 12.0
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 10.0
- FDP -0.6average 5.6
- Linke -0.3average 4.3
- Grüne +0.1average 17.9
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU75
- Grüne35
- Freie Wähler22
- AfD20
- SPD18
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne110 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler97 of 180
- CSU + AfD95 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 27 Sep 2018GMS, 25 Jun 2019 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2019
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.