Infratest dimap poll of 4 October 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- ARD-Tagesthemen
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 2 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU33.0%-2.0
- Grüne18.0%+1.0
- SPD11.0%±0
- Freie Wähler11.0%±0
- AfD10.0%-1.0
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke4.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 12 Sep 2018.
In this poll Infratest dimap has CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 1 to 2 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ARD-Tagesthemen.
Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 12 Sep 2018, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has CSU 2.4 points lower and AfD 2.4 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -2.4average 35.4
- AfD -2.4average 12.4
- Freie Wähler +1.5average 9.5
- SPD -1.2average 12.2
- Grüne +0.8average 17.2
- FDP +0.8average 5.2
- Linke +0.6average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU67
- Grüne37
- SPD22
- Freie Wähler22
- AfD20
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + SPD + Freie Wähler111 of 180
- CSU + SPD + AfD109 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD109 of 180
- CSU + SPD + FDP101 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP101 of 180
- CSU + AfD + FDP99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.