Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 9 January 2019 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Bayerischer Rundfunk
Fieldwork period
3 to 7 Jan 2019
Respondents
1,003
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU35.0%+2.0
  • Grüne21.0%+3.0
  • Freie Wähler13.0%+2.0
  • SPD9.0%-2.0
  • AfD8.0%-2.0
  • FDP6.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%-1.5
  • Others5.0%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 4 Oct 2018.

In this poll Infratest dimap has CSU ahead on 35.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 3 to 7 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Bayerischer Rundfunk.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 4 Oct 2018, Grüne gains 3.0 points, CSU gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has AfD 3.7 points lower and Grüne 2.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -3.7average 11.7
  • Grüne +2.6average 18.4
  • Freie Wähler +2.5average 10.5
  • SPD -1.5average 10.5
  • Linke -1.1average 4.1
  • CSU +0.5average 34.5
  • FDP +0.5average 5.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 68 seatsGrüne: 41 seatsFreie Wähler: 25 seatsSPD: 18 seatsAfD: 16 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU68
  • Grüne41
  • Freie Wähler25
  • SPD18
  • AfD16
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne109 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + AfD102 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + FDP98 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + FDP96 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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