Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 5 October 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 4 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 1,122
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU35.0%±0
- Grüne18.0%±0
- SPD12.0%-1.0
- AfD10.0%±0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-1.0
- FDP5.5%+0.5
- Linke4.5%+0.5
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Sep 2018.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CSU ahead on 35.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,122 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Sep 2018, SPD loses 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD 2.4 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.4average 12.4
- Grüne +0.8average 17.2
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 9.5
- Linke +0.5average 4.0
- SPD +0.2average 11.8
- FDP +0.1average 5.4
- CSU ±0average 35.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU69
- Grüne36
- SPD24
- AfD20
- Freie Wähler20
- FDP11
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
- CSU + AfD + Freie Wähler109 of 180
- CSU + AfD + FDP100 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP100 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.