Single poll

Civey poll of 21 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
13 to 20 Sep 2023
Respondents
5,002
Method
Online
  • CSU38.0%+2.0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler14.0%+2.0
  • AfD13.0%-4.0
  • SPD9.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke2.0%+1.0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Sep 2023.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 5,002 people were surveyed from 13 to 20 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Sep 2023, AfD loses 4.0 points, CSU gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 2.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler -2.1average 16.1
  • CSU +1.2average 36.8
  • Grüne -0.7average 14.7
  • FDP +0.5average 3.5
  • Linke +0.5average 1.5
  • AfD -0.3average 13.3
  • SPD +0.1average 8.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 77 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsFreie Wähler: 29 seatsAfD: 27 seatsSPD: 18 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU77
  • Grüne29
  • Freie Wähler29
  • AfD27
  • SPD18
  • CSU + Grüne106 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
  • CSU + AfD104 of 180
  • CSU + SPD95 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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