Single poll

Civey poll of 7 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
30 Aug 2023 to 6 Sep 2023
Respondents
5,003
Method
Online
  • CSU36.0%-2.0
  • AfD17.0%+4.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%±0
  • SPD10.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke1.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 24 Aug 2023.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 5,003 people were surveyed from 30 Aug 2023 to 6 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Spiegel Online / Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 24 Aug 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 3.4 points higher and CSU 2.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +3.4average 13.6
  • CSU -2.8average 38.8
  • Freie Wähler -2.5average 14.5
  • SPD +1.3average 8.7
  • Grüne +0.9average 14.1
  • Linke -0.5average 1.5
  • FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 72 seatsAfD: 34 seatsGrüne: 30 seatsFreie Wähler: 24 seatsSPD: 20 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU72
  • AfD34
  • Grüne30
  • Freie Wähler24
  • SPD20
  • CSU + AfD106 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne102 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler96 of 180
  • CSU + SPD92 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.