Infratest dimap poll of 17 January 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Bayerischer Rundfunk
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 15 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,161
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU40.0%+4.0
- AfD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler13.0%-3.0
- SPD7.0%-2.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%+3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 28 Sep 2023.
In this poll Infratest dimap has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 15.0%. 1,161 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Bayerischer Rundfunk.
Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 28 Sep 2023, CSU gains 4.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has Freie Wähler 1.8 points lower and CSU 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler -1.8average 14.8
- CSU +1.7average 38.3
- Grüne -1.7average 14.7
- AfD +1.2average 13.8
- SPD -1.2average 8.2
- FDP -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU82
- AfD31
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler26
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD113 of 180
- CSU + Grüne109 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler108 of 180
- CSU + SPD96 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.