Infratest dimap poll of 14 January 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Bayerischer Rundfunk
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 12 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,177
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU39.0%-1.0
- AfD19.0%+4.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Freie Wähler9.0%-4.0
- SPD8.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%
- Others9.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 17 Jan 2024.
In this poll Infratest dimap has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,177 people were surveyed from 8 to 12 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Bayerischer Rundfunk.
Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 17 Jan 2024, AfD gains 4.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 4.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has Freie Wähler 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler -1.7average 10.7
- CSU +1.3average 37.7
- Linke -1.0average 4.0
- AfD -0.7average 19.7
- SPD +0.7average 7.3
- Grüne +0.3average 12.7
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU80
- AfD39
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler18
- SPD16
- CSU + AfD119 of 180
- CSU + Grüne107 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler98 of 180
- CSU + SPD96 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.