Civey poll of 12 April 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Mar 2025 to 11 Apr 2025
- Respondents
- 5,006
- Method
- Online
- CSU39.0%-2.0
- AfD18.0%+3.0
- Grüne12.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-1.0
- SPD8.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- FDP2.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 15 Mar 2025.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 5,006 people were surveyed from 28 Mar 2025 to 11 Apr 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 15 Mar 2025, AfD gains 3.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 3.7 points higher and CSU 3.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Apr 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +3.7average 14.3
- CSU -3.3average 42.3
- BSW -1.5average 5.5
- Freie Wähler -1.3average 11.3
- Grüne +1.2average 10.8
- Linke +1.0average 1.0
- SPD +0.3average 7.7
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU80
- AfD37
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD17
- CSU + AfD117 of 180
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler101 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.