Single poll
Civey poll of 15 November 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Oct 2025 to 13 Nov 2025
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 30 Oct 2025 to 13 Nov 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 11 Oct 2025, CSU gains 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has CSU 2.0 points higher and Freie Wähler 1.5 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Nov 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +2.0average 38.0
- Freie Wähler -1.5average 10.5
- AfD +1.0average 19.0
- Grüne -1.0average 13.0
- FDP -1.0average 2.0
- SPD +0.5average 7.5
- Linke +0.5average 4.5
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU77
- AfD38
- Grüne23
- Freie Wähler17
- SPD15
- Linke10
- CSU + AfD115 of 180
- CSU + Grüne100 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler94 of 180
- CSU + SPD92 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 11 Oct 2025Civey, 17 Dec 2025 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2025
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.