Civey poll of 11 October 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Sep 2025 to 9 Oct 2025
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
- CSU38.0%-2.0
- AfD20.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%±0
- SPD8.0%±0
- Linke4.0%+3.0
- FDP2.0%+1.0
- BSW2.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 13 Sep 2025.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 24 Sep 2025 to 9 Oct 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 13 Sep 2025, Linke gains 3.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.0average 13.0
- AfD +1.0average 19.0
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 10.5
- SPD +0.5average 7.5
- Linke -0.5average 4.5
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
- CSU ±0average 38.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- AfD41
- Grüne23
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD17
- CSU + AfD119 of 180
- CSU + Grüne101 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.