Single poll

Civey poll of 13 September 2025 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
29 Aug 2025 to 12 Sep 2025
Respondents
5,000
Method
Online
  • CSU40.0%-1.0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler10.0%+1.0
  • SPD8.0%±0
  • BSW2.0%±0
  • FDP1.0%±0
  • Linke1.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 18 Aug 2025.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 29 Aug 2025 to 12 Sep 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 18 Aug 2025, CSU loses 1.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Linke 4.0 points lower and CSU 3.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Sep 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke -4.0average 5.0
  • CSU +3.0average 37.0
  • Grüne -2.0average 15.0
  • AfD +1.0average 19.0
  • BSW +1.0average 1.0
  • FDP -1.0average 2.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 10.0
  • SPD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 79 seatsAfD: 39 seatsGrüne: 26 seatsFreie Wähler: 20 seatsSPD: 16 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU79
  • AfD39
  • Grüne26
  • Freie Wähler20
  • SPD16
  • CSU + AfD118 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne105 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
  • CSU + SPD95 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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