Single poll
Civey poll of 17 December 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Nov 2025 to 11 Dec 2025
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 27 Nov 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 15 Nov 2025, CSU loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 2.0 points higher and CSU 1.5 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Dec 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.0average 19.0
- CSU -1.5average 38.5
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- SPD +1.0average 7.0
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
- Freie Wähler ±0average 10.0
- Linke ±0average 4.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU76
- AfD43
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler20
- SPD16
- CSU + AfD119 of 180
- CSU + Grüne101 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler96 of 180
- CSU + SPD92 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 15 Nov 2025Civey, 19 Jan 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2025
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.