Single poll
Civey poll of 19 January 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 15 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 15 Jan 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 17 Dec 2025, CSU gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +1.0average 39.0
- AfD -1.0average 19.0
- BSW -1.0average 2.0
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 10.5
- Grüne ±0average 12.0
- SPD ±0average 7.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU82
- AfD37
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler22
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD119 of 180
- CSU + Grüne107 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
- CSU + SPD96 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 17 Dec 2025Civey, 14 Feb 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.