Single poll
GMS poll of 30 September 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 29 Sep 2025
- Respondents
- 1,017
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,017 people were surveyed from 24 to 29 Sep 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 17 Sep 2024, AfD gains 7.0 points, BSW loses 4.0 points, CSU loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 3.0 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -3.0average 14.0
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 10.0
- SPD -1.0average 8.0
- Linke +1.0average 3.0
- CSU +0.5average 38.5
- AfD -0.5average 19.5
- FDP +0.5average 1.5
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- AfD39
- Grüne23
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD120 of 180
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 17 Sep 2024GMS, 11 Dec 2025 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2025
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.