GMS poll of 11 December 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- CSU
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 10 Dec 2025
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU40.0%+1.0
- AfD19.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-1.0
- SPD6.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- FDP2.0%±0
- BSW2.0%±0
- Others6.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Sep 2025.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 5 to 10 Dec 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by CSU.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Sep 2025, CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 2.0 points lower and Linke 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Dec 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -2.0average 8.0
- Linke -2.0average 5.0
- CSU +1.5average 38.5
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- AfD -0.5average 19.5
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 9.5
- FDP +0.5average 1.5
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU83
- AfD39
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD12
- CSU + AfD122 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.