Single poll
GMS poll of 5 January 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 23 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,006
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 23 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 11 Dec 2025, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 2.5 points lower and CSU 2.0 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.5average 13.5
- CSU +2.0average 37.0
- Freie Wähler +2.0average 10.0
- SPD -2.0average 8.0
- Linke -1.5average 4.5
- AfD -1.0average 20.0
- BSW +0.5average 1.5
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- AfD39
- Freie Wähler25
- Grüne23
- SPD12
- CSU + AfD120 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 11 Dec 2025GMS, 3 Mar 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.