Single poll
GMS poll of 3 March 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026, Grüne gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.0average 12.0
- BSW +1.0average 1.0
- CSU -0.5average 39.5
- AfD -0.5average 18.5
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 10.5
- SPD -0.5average 7.5
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- AfD37
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD118 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 5 Jan 2026GMS, 19 Oct 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.