GMS poll of 3 March 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU39.0%±0
- AfD18.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%+2.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-2.0
- SPD7.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- FDP2.0%±0
- BSW2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026, Grüne gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.0average 12.0
- BSW +1.0average 1.0
- CSU -0.5average 39.5
- AfD -0.5average 18.5
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 10.5
- SPD -0.5average 7.5
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- AfD37
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD118 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.