Single poll
GMS poll of 19 October 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 19 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 1,011
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,011 people were surveyed from 14 to 19 Oct 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Mar 2026, AfD gains 4.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 2.0 points higher and Grüne 2.0 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.0average 20.0
- Grüne +2.0average 13.0
- Freie Wähler -2.0average 12.0
- CSU -1.0average 38.0
- SPD ±0average 6.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU74
- AfD44
- Grüne30
- Freie Wähler20
- SPD12
- CSU + AfD118 of 180
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler94 of 180
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler94 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 3 Mar 2026Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.