GMS poll of 17 September 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 16 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,048
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU42.0%+1.0
- AfD12.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler11.0%-4.0
- Grüne10.0%-3.0
- SPD7.0%±0
- BSW6.0%+3.0
- FDP2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei2.0%+1.0
- Linke1.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 7 May 2024.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by AfD on 12.0%. 1,048 people were surveyed from 11 to 16 Sep 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 7 May 2024, Freie Wähler loses 4.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, BSW gains 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has BSW 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.0average 4.0
- CSU -1.0average 43.0
- AfD -1.0average 13.0
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 12.0
- Grüne -1.0average 11.0
- SPD -1.0average 8.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
- Linke ±0average 1.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU86
- AfD25
- Freie Wähler23
- Grüne20
- SPD14
- BSW12
- CSU + AfD111 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler109 of 180
- CSU + Grüne106 of 180
- CSU + SPD100 of 180
- CSU + BSW98 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.