Civey poll of 14 December 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Nov 2024 to 12 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 5,001
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%-2.0
- AfD14.0%+2.0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler12.0%+1.0
- SPD7.0%-1.0
- BSW4.0%±0
- FDP3.0%+1.0
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others5.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 16 Nov 2024.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by AfD on 14.0%. 5,001 people were surveyed from 28 Nov 2024 to 12 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 16 Nov 2024, CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.7average 10.3
- BSW -1.0average 5.0
- FDP +1.0average 2.0
- CSU -0.7average 42.7
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 11.3
- SPD -0.7average 7.7
- AfD -0.3average 14.3
- Linke ±0average 1.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU87
- AfD29
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler25
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD116 of 180
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler112 of 180
- CSU + SPD101 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.