Single poll
Civey poll of 16 November 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 15 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 5,008
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 44.0%, followed by AfD on 12.0%. 5,008 people were surveyed from 1 to 15 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 16 Mar 2024, Grüne loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points, CSU gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 2.3 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.3average 14.3
- CSU +1.3average 42.7
- BSW -1.0average 5.0
- Grüne +0.7average 10.3
- Freie Wähler -0.3average 11.3
- SPD +0.3average 7.7
- FDP ±0average 2.0
- Linke ±0average 1.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU92
- AfD25
- Grüne23
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD17
- CSU + AfD117 of 180
- CSU + Grüne115 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler115 of 180
- CSU + SPD109 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 16 Mar 2024Civey, 14 Dec 2024 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.