Civey poll of 16 March 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 15 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 5,001
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%+2.0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- Freie Wähler14.0%+1.0
- AfD13.0%±0
- SPD7.0%-2.0
- FDP2.0%-1.0
- Linke1.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 18 Nov 2023.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 5,001 people were surveyed from 8 to 15 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 18 Nov 2023, CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.5average 12.5
- CSU +1.0average 41.0
- AfD -1.0average 14.0
- SPD +0.5average 6.5
- FDP -0.5average 2.5
- Freie Wähler ±0average 14.0
- Linke ±0average 1.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU84
- Grüne28
- Freie Wähler28
- AfD26
- SPD14
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler112 of 180
- CSU + AfD110 of 180
- CSU + SPD98 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.