Single poll
Civey poll of 14 August 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Jul 2026 to 13 Aug 2026
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 30 Jul 2026 to 13 Aug 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 18 Jul 2026, CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and AfD 1.5 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Aug 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.5average 9.5
- AfD +1.5average 18.5
- SPD -1.5average 7.5
- CSU -1.0average 39.0
- BSW +1.0average 2.0
- Grüne ±0average 13.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU77
- AfD41
- Grüne26
- Freie Wähler24
- SPD12
- CSU + AfD118 of 180
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler101 of 180
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler91 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 18 Jul 2026Civey, 12 Sep 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.