Single poll
GMS poll of 6 February 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Jan 2024 to 5 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 1,018
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by Freie Wähler on 15.0%. 1,018 people were surveyed from 31 Jan 2024 to 5 Feb 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Jan 2024, CSU gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 3.9 points higher and Grüne 2.7 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.9average 38.1
- Grüne -2.7average 14.7
- SPD -2.4average 8.4
- FDP -1.2average 3.2
- AfD -1.0average 14.0
- Freie Wähler +0.8average 14.2
- Linke -0.7average 1.7
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU86
- Freie Wähler31
- AfD27
- Grüne24
- SPD12
- CSU + Freie Wähler117 of 180
- CSU + AfD113 of 180
- CSU + Grüne110 of 180
- CSU + SPD98 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 3 Jan 2024GMS, 7 May 2024 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.