Single poll
GMS poll of 3 January 2024 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Freie Wähler on 16.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 19 Sep 2023, CSU gains 5.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 3.4 points higher and SPD 2.8 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.4average 37.6
- SPD -2.8average 8.8
- Grüne -1.9average 14.9
- Freie Wähler +1.3average 14.7
- Linke -0.8average 1.8
- FDP -0.5average 3.5
- AfD +0.3average 13.7
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU82
- Freie Wähler32
- AfD28
- Grüne26
- SPD12
- CSU + Freie Wähler114 of 180
- CSU + AfD110 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + SPD94 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 19 Sep 2023GMS, 6 Feb 2024 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.