Single poll
Civey poll of 17 October 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 16 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 16 Oct 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 12 Sep 2026, AfD loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 2.0 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.0average 10.0
- CSU -1.0average 39.0
- AfD ±0average 18.0
- Grüne ±0average 13.0
- SPD ±0average 7.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
- BSW ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- AfD37
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler24
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD115 of 180
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + SPD92 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 12 Sep 2026Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.