Single poll
Civey poll of 14 March 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 26 Feb 2026 to 12 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 26 Feb 2026 to 12 Mar 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 14 Feb 2026, BSW gains 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 1.5 points lower and Freie Wähler 1.5 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -1.5average 18.5
- Freie Wähler +1.5average 9.5
- Grüne -1.0average 13.0
- BSW +1.0average 2.0
- SPD +0.5average 7.5
- CSU ±0average 39.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU80
- AfD35
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD17
- CSU + AfD115 of 180
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler103 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
More
More polls
← Civey, 14 Feb 2026Civey, 19 Apr 2026 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.