Single poll

Civey poll of 14 June 2025 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
30 May 2025 to 13 Jun 2025
Respondents
5,001
Method
Online
  • CSU39.0%±0
  • AfD22.0%+3.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler9.0%-1.0
  • SPD7.0%-1.0
  • BSW3.0%-1.0
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • Linke1.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 10 May 2025.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 5,001 people were surveyed from 30 May 2025 to 13 Jun 2025, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 10 May 2025, AfD gains 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 6.5 points higher and CSU 3.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jun 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +6.5average 15.5
  • CSU -3.5average 42.5
  • Freie Wähler -2.5average 11.5
  • BSW -2.0average 5.0
  • SPD -1.0average 8.0
  • Grüne +0.7average 11.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 79 seatsAfD: 45 seatsGrüne: 24 seatsFreie Wähler: 18 seatsSPD: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU79
  • AfD45
  • Grüne24
  • Freie Wähler18
  • SPD14
  • CSU + AfD124 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne103 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler97 of 180
  • CSU + SPD93 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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