Civey poll of 16 May 2026 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Apr 2026 to 13 May 2026
- Respondents
- 5,000
- Method
- Online
- CSU37.0%-1.0
- AfD19.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler12.0%+1.0
- SPD7.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- BSW3.0%±0
- FDP2.0%±0
- Others3.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 19 Apr 2026.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 29 Apr 2026 to 13 May 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 19 Apr 2026, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and CSU 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.5average 9.5
- CSU -2.0average 39.0
- Grüne +1.0average 13.0
- BSW +1.0average 2.0
- AfD +0.5average 18.5
- SPD -0.5average 7.5
- Linke ±0average 3.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU75
- AfD39
- Grüne28
- Freie Wähler24
- SPD14
- CSU + AfD114 of 180
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler91 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.